As Published in the Miami Herald
Under conservative predictions of a three-foot rise in sea level, high tide would wash daily into downtown Miami, South Beach and Hollywood by century's end. At five feet, the sea would swallow much of the Everglades and cover pavement from Fort Lauderdale across to Naples.
That's the startling future the Miami-Dade County Climate Change Task Force will describe Tuesday -- coincidentally, Earth Day -- when members present county commissioners with a first set of recommendations to help slow or stave off rising seas that threaten all of South Florida with catastrophic social, environmental and economic damage.
''Hopefully, these kind of revelations are going to open eyes,'' said Harvey Ruvin, the county's clerk of court and chairman of the task force. ''It's the reality unless we want to live in a dramatically different world. The science keeps getting bleaker.''
Simply put, no place on the planet has more at stake if global warming continues unabated.
One international group, the report notes, already ranks Greater Miami, with so much high-priced property already in high-risk coastal zones, as world's most vulnerable spot for flood losses. Surge from a once-a-century hurricane could cause $416 billion in economic damage now, according the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and put a mind-boggling $3.5 trillion at risk by 2070 with areas further inland exposed.
The task force, which is only advisory, concluded that Miami-Dade will not be able to defend against seas that could rise at least 1.5 feet in 50 years, and by three to five feet by century's end, without serious changes to zoning.
RECOMMENDATIONS
The 35 recommendations, which cover everything from transportation to zoning, include phasing out gas-guzzler taxis for hybrids starting in 2008 and burning ''bio-fuels'' such as used cooking oil in the county fleet. The report urges limiting development in at-risk areas and overhauling codes to raise homes and roads. It also advocates making Everglades restoration and the preservation of wild and rural lands a priority, calling them a first line of defense for wildlife, farm crops and a freshwater supply under increasing assault from the sea.
Hal Wanless, a University of Miami geology professor who has studied sea-level rise in South Florida for decades, understands the threat seems daunting. His maps show that at six feet, a level he considers likely by 2100, only a strip of ancient limestone ridge several miles from the coast would remain high and dry.
''Whether you're a business owner or a scientist, this is such a big thing that it's difficult to fathom,'' Wanless said. ''At the county level, at the federal and global level, there have to be major changes that take place.''
Task force members acknowledge that Florida's future largely depends on broad action -- particularly phasing out coal-burning power plants -- but they also believe large counties like Miami-Dade can make a critical difference with local programs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect the water supply or critical natural areas.
''The most important thing we can do is restore the ecosystem,'' said Dan Kimball, superintendent of Everglades National Park and one of 25 members of a panel that includes academics, architects, bankers, developers, lawyers, engineers, urban planners, environmentalists and others. ''Bringing in fresh water to try to keep salt water at bay, every little bit helps.''
WARMING IS REAL
The report states without qualification that ''human-induced global warming is real and has begun.'' How fast and how high seas will rise remains a question.
The report characterizes the 2005 United Nations' Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change's assessment of a two-foot rise by 2100, an oft-cited benchmark, as ''alarmingly conservative,'' Wanless said, because more recent data suggest the Arctic and Greenland ice sheets are melting faster than expected.
Task force colleague Stephen Leatherman, director of the International Hurricane Research Center at Florida International University, said there is no doubting the climate is warming, but pinpointing timelines and trends remains difficult.
''It's certainly a serious concern, particularly for people who live in South Florida and other low-lying areas, but I'm not ready to abandon ship,'' Leatherman said.
But even conservative scenarios would mean massive problems for South Florida, said Wanless. ''You don't have to go to three or four feet to start doing in our barrier islands.''
The report, while not the first to show South Florida on the fast-eroding front line of global warming, shows impacts at the local scale. In addition to Wanless' scenarios and maps, it cites Nation Under Siege, a report issued by a nonprofit building design company, Architecture 2030, that uses Google-Earth maps to show the impacts on relatively modest sea level increases of one meter and 1.25 meters.
At high tide, sea water would spill into massive sections of Miami, Miami Beach, Hollywood and Fort Lauderdale. ''Florida is really on the front line if it happens,'' said Edward Mazria, executive director of New Mexico-based Architecture 2030. ''That's where it's going to begin.''A Miami-Dade research group said that codes, land-use, transportation and other policies must change to combat the threat of rising seas.
